Climate Change/Global Warming

The rhetoric and propaganda around climate change used to advance political objectives, such as limiting reliable, low-cost energy, especially in desperately poor countries, and justifying reckless ideologically driven spending (for wind & solar producing unreliable energy which collapses daily), cause many to question the mere existence of man-induced climate change.

The hypocrisy of the global warming messengers, such as Al Gore further discredits this message. As Gore told us all to consume less energy to save the planet, he consumed 20 times the electricity of the average American household in his Tennessee mansion and an equally gluttonous amount of natural gas. Then there is his second mansion.

In this environment, skepticism towards the concept of global warming is an intelligent response. An even more intelligent response, however, is to separate these messengers from the facts and to follow the data. Perhaps the data that follows.

Fast Facts

• The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon in which certain gases (greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere trap heat from the sun and help keep the planet’s temperature within a range suitable for life. 
• Given the warming impact of naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHGs), it is reasonable to expect a similar influence from man-made GHGs.
• Climate models serve as valuable tools for providing approximations of how diverse atmospheric assumptions impact temperature changes, although they aren’t precise predictors of absolute temperature shifts.
• Methane (CH₄) emissions are rising much faster than carbon dioxide (CO₂).
• The adverse consequences of climate change are poised to outweigh the benefits of elevated temperatures.
• Effectively managing the impacts of a warmer atmosphere, guided by data-centric cost-benefit analyses, is vital to minimizing suffering and avoiding economic disruption.

Background

The influence of elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) on atmospheric temperatures is a well-documented physical process supported by mathematical models and empirical observations. When GHG concentrations increase within a controlled environment without counteractive mechanisms, air temperatures rise. Counteractive measures, such as soot emitted by coal-burning power plants, can mitigate the warming effect of CO₂ by blocking sunlight. However, this cooling effect is absent in coal plants built after the widespread adoption of scrubber technology.

Greenhouse gases are essential for maintaining Earth’s surface temperature at a level that supports life. Without them, the average surface temperature would drop from around 60°F to approximately 0°F. Given the warming effect of naturally occurring GHGs, it is logical to conclude that additional GHGs produced by human activities would also contribute to increased atmospheric temperatures.

However, what lacks reasonability are catastrophic climate scenarios, which exaggerate the negative impacts of a warming planet to justify actions that impoverish the world, while accelerating material consumption, and environmental destruction, to virtue signal green.  Greenwashing and Germany provide detailed examples of this disastrous trend which has replaced meaningful carbon reduction actions.

Greenhouse Effect

The warming of our Earth’s surface and lowest layer of the atmosphere caused by atmospheric gases (like CO₂) that trap some of the Sun’s energy, is commonly referred to as the greenhouse effect.  Some credit Swedish physicist and physical chemist Svante Arrhenius for the origins of the term with the publication of the first plausible climate model that explained how gases in Earth’s atmosphere trap heat, back in 1896.  Others credit French mathematician and physicist Joseph Fourier for first arguing this point in 1824. 

The greenhouse effect can be summarized as follows: the atmosphere allows most visible sunlight to reach Earth’s surface. As the surface heats up, it radiates energy back toward space as infrared radiation. Unlike visible light, this infrared radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases, raising atmospheric temperatures. The heated atmosphere then radiates infrared energy back toward Earth’s surface, further warming it. This process is distinct from the warming in a greenhouse, where glass panes trap heat by preventing air circulation.

A simplified energy balance of the Earth’s atmosphere reveals numerous physical processes that must be accounted for to predict atmospheric temperature changes due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Modeling

Climate models use mathematical equations to represent processes affecting temperatures, helping scientists understand the impact of human activities on Earth’s environment. However, accurately modeling all heat transfer paths is challenging due to incomplete knowledge of heat transfer processes and limitations in computing power.

Despite significant uncertainties, climate models are valuable tools for identifying cause-effect relationships, such as comparing the relative effects of increasing methane versus CO₂ levels on atmospheric temperatures. However, the accuracy of these models is often debated, and some researchers argue that using overly “hot” models can exaggerate the predicted impacts of global warming.   

Apocalyptic projections for the impacts of global warming on man may be due to climate researchers ignoring the accuracy of the models used to make such predictions.  Results from models proven to be wildly off may be used as part of the data set to estimate the magnitude of global warming impacts on society.

Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Global warming refers to the increase in average air temperatures near Earth’s surface over the past one to two centuries, primarily due to human activities. Climate change, on the other hand, refers to long-term shifts in average weather patterns, driven by both natural processes and human activities.

Global Warming Potential Values

While CO₂ is the most well-known greenhouse gas, other GHGs also contribute to global warming. To estimate their net warming effect, global warming potential (GWP) values are assigned based on their heating effect relative to CO₂ over specific time frames, typically 20 or 100 years. These values account for differences in how long gases remain in the atmosphere before dissipating or breaking down.

Water vapor (H₂O) is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere.  While water vapor existed on Earth well before the presence of humans, human-induced warming of the atmosphere contributes to an elevation in atmospheric water vapor levels. Higher temperatures lead to increased moisture retention in warmer air compared to cooler air and heightened atmospheric temperatures drive more evaporation, consequently, introducing more moisture into the atmosphere.  

Atmospheric moisture, occurring as clouds, can warm or cool the planet. Clouds can block light and heat from the Sun, making Earth’s temperature cooler. or trap heat reaching the earth from radiating back to space.

The Role of Methane

While natural gas burns much cleaner than coal, producing about 50% less CO₂ and minimal sulfur dioxide and particulates, it’s primary constituent, methane, is a potent GHG when released into the atmosphere from leakage during the drilling, transportation, storage and consumption.

Greenhouse Gas Monitoring

Real-time measurements of atmospheric GHG concentrations began in 1958 when scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography started measuring CO₂ levels from the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. In 1972, the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory was established to track atmospheric gases, aerosols, and other factors related to global warming. Over time, monitoring expanded to include methane, nitrous oxide, and sulfur hexafluoride.

The fluctuating line in atmospheric CO₂ measurements is a result of the seasonal shifts in vegetation growth. Despite the global expenditure of trillions of dollars on unreliable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, atmospheric measurements reveal a continuing upward trajectory for CO₂ levels.   

Since regular direct measurements of greenhouse gases have occurred for less than 100 years, ice cores samples are analyzed to estimate atmospheric concentrations up to 800,000 years ago, These samples reveal the dramatic impact of human activity on CO₂ concentrations.    

With 243 coal power plants permitted or under construction in China as of 2023, the upward trend in CO₂ emissions is unlikely to reverse soon.

The rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is small compared to methane (CH₄).  Unlike CO₂, which offers the benefit of increased plant growth, there is no advantage to increased atmospheric methane levels (outside of areas of the planet that benefit from increased atmospheric warming).  

Nitrous oxides (N₂O), commonly referred to as laughing gas when used to calm anxious dental patients, received little attention in the media before 2019 when Dutch farmers protested their parliament’s efforts to limit nitrogen emissions. This would affect the farmer’s ability to raise food by limiting fertilizer use and livestock, reducing their ability to export food at a time of high food prices and shortages.  

The Dutch are the 2nd largest food exporter in the world, after the US, making any reductions in their production an issue for anyone concerned about food scarcity or prices.  

Fortunately, atmospheric N₂O levels are more than 1000 times lower than for CO₂ and are increasing at a smaller rate.  

Sources of Primary Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), the most abundant man-made greenhouse gas, is also generated by natural phenomena, like volcanic activity and forest fires.  

Human activities have a significantly greater impact on methane emissions compared to carbon dioxide, both directly and through feedback mechanisms. Factors contributing to this include growing and wealthier populations with increased meat consumption, increased natural gas use to replace coal and support unreliable renewables (wind and solar), permafrost thawing, and hydroelectric development in parts of Africa. These factors suggest that methane emissions are likely to continue growing much faster than carbon dioxide emissions for the foreseeable future.

While the Dutch Parliament is forcing farmers off their land, in the name of limiting nitrous oxide emissions, they produce more CO₂ than almost any other Western European country due to a mere pittance of nuclear power. Their biggest problem is their lack of virtually carbon-free nuclear, with a single operating reactor. Increasing their two planned nuclear reactors to three or four would dwarf reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from limiting farming practices. 

A positive or negative feedback system occurs when a process generates an outcome that increases or decreases the initial process, respectively. Global warming feedback systems tend to be positive, with higher temperatures increasing the rate of increase. This leads some to theorize the possibility of doomsday climate scenarios with runway atmospheric temperatures occurring over mere decades rather than centuries. Permafrost melt is often mentioned as the biggest risk among the positive feedback mechanisms. 

While positive feedback may initially speed up the rate of temperature change, the resulting increased cloud cover could provide a cooling effect to offset the warming, making the doomsday scenario of runaway atmospheric temperatures less probable.  

More than 50% of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generated by transportation and electricity generation.  Eliminating GHG emissions in electricity generation and ground transportation, therefore, arguably offers the most practical solution for dramatically reducing US greenhouse gases. If our electrical power was low carbon, like Norway, electrifying our transportation network would likely make sense from an environmental perspective.  

Since the US generates 60% of its electricity from fossil fuels, electric vehicles are just another expensive way to virtue signal green while overloading the electrical grid and avoiding one of the greenest actions possible. Incentivizing the use of the most efficient hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius. The latest version gets 50 MPG, uses a minimal amount of rare earth metals, relative to its fuel economy, and does not impact the electrical grid. Unlike the electric Tesla Cyber truck, a monument to waste weighing around 6,600 lbs.  

Subsidizing the production of energy-gluttonous vehicles (when powered by electricity) promises disastrous consequences for government coffers and the environment.

Climate Change Impacts

Upon seeing this chart my initial thought was, “Thank goodness for manmade climate change since it stopped us from heading into an ice age.”  My second thought was, “Mission accomplished so let’s slow it down.”

Satellite-era sea level measurements with their high accuracy have validated an accelerating increase in sea level rise globally.  Local changes may, however, significantly differ.

Climate Change Winners

Large swathes of Russia and Canada, which were previously more or less uninhabitable because of their cold winters, will now be economically viable as atmospheric temperatures rise. I doubt if many people regularly dealing with -40 F mid-winter temperatures would complain if it only reaches -30 F. The monetary benefit of reduced heating loads is accompanied by longer growing seasons and more vegetation growth due to higher atmospheric CO₂ levels. While Russia and Canada are the two biggest beneficiaries of this effect, dozens of other countries will probably enjoy the same benefits. This includes the Baltic countries, much of Eastern Europe, and parts of Western Europe. 

Reduced weather deaths from cooler temperatures should far exceed increased deaths from higher temperatures in tropical countries. 

Climate Change Losers

Modern civilization and its infrastructure developed assuming existing sea levels, which are rising, glaciers for water storage, which are shrinking, and hydrological patterns, which are changing (partly) due to higher atmospheric and ocean temperatures. While these climate-related factors are never static, the rate of change is increasing due to man-made global warming.

Accommodating Change

History books tell of the collapse of civilizations, such as the Mayans in Central and South America, in response to naturally occurring changes in climate (multiple droughts). Ignored in this narrative are the 7 million living descendants of the Mayans who developed elaborate irrigation systems, captured rainwaters, and moved to wetter areas to survive waves of drought.   

Like the Mayans, we too will adapt to the consequences of a hotter planet, which is already set in the atmosphere.  

The developing world will not be satisfied with solar panels and batteries to light their 8 W LED light bulb, after observing the energy-gluttonous lifestyle of the poorest Westerner. Fossil fuel consumption is therefore set to explode in Africa and South America unless lower-cost nuclear or hydropower is available. 

Benefits from fossil fuel use overwhelm any possible adverse effects from higher atmospheric temperatures for the poorest citizens of the energy-deprived developing world. Natural gas-based fertilizers will continue driving agricultural outputs with genetic breeding to accommodate rising temperatures. Expanded irrigation to offset changing precipitation patterns, and modern farming methods to improve yields in regions most affected by rising temperatures can offset higher temperatures.

Some growing regions will also be abandoned in favor of more productive locations for a warmer planet.   

The hundreds of coal power plants planned for India and China will bring reliable air conditioning (AC) to millions suffering through deadly heat waves. A few degrees F outside ambient temperature rise is trivial compared to the benefits of the 30 degrees F temperature reduction in an air-conditioned Calcutta home at 6 PM when the unreliable solar power the West promotes stops generating power for a growing middle class.  

Water storage to make up for the loss of glaciers and snowmelt will mean more dams, reservoirs, and perhaps groundwater recharge systems.

While ocean heating could lead to more intense hurricanes in the future and additional damage to coastal areas, the technology to predict events in time to take cover, which requires reliable 24/7 power provided by fossil fuels, hydro, or nuclear power, has reduced deaths by orders of magnitude. 

Wealthier countries will adapt to rising sea levels with seawalls while residents of poor countries may need to relocate to higher ground.  

The biggest risk to adapting to a changing climate is a world economy destroyed by idiotic policies that reduce the wealth available to pay for needed accommodations.