Wind & Solar

Claims about a green transition to wind and solar are no match for the laws of physics.

Wind and solar are the least scalable, least reliable, least efficient, most land-consuming, material-consuming, sources of energy ever created.

Wind turbines generate power only when the wind blows between certain speeds, and the power they generate fluctuates constantly as wind gusts vary.

Solar provides no power at night or when solar panels are covered by snow or ice, and only reduced power on cloudy days, during storms, when dirty, or when the Sun is lower in the sky. During overcast days solar produces virtually no power as it does during winter locations far from the equator.

Since neither wind nor solar can be relied upon for either baseload or peaking power, wind and solar farms are gas plants. Inefficiently run gas plants due to the need to accommodate erratic inputs of wind or solar-generated electricity. The facts are in the data that follows in Germany, Greenwashing. and this section.

Physical Reality Means There Will Be No Wind & Solar ‘Transition’ (Not Now/Not Ever)

Wind Energy Explained

Wind occurs due to the uneven heating of the earth’s atmosphere by the sun, irregularities on the earth’s surface, and the earth’s rotation. A wind turbine turns wind energy into electricity using blades that rotate under the aerodynamic forces of airflow to turn the rotor of a generator.

Power produced by a wind turbine is proportional to the wind speed cubed (to the 3rd power). Small changes in wind speed, therefore, generate huge changes in power production, Increasing the wind speed by 25% almost doubles the power produced, and conversely a wind speed drop of 20% cuts power generated almost in half.

Texas and the United Kingdom have some of the best wind resources in the world making them prime examples of the the capabilities and limitations of wind energy.

United Kingdom (UK)

The United Kingdom with some of the best wind energy resources on the planet with high, (but not too high), mean wind speeds, illustrates the incredible unreliability of wind energy.   This roller coaster pattern of countrywide power generation requires 100% backup by reliable power, making it a parasite on the energy generation system.

Texas

Texas leads the US in wind energy production due to the ideal combination of some of the best wind resources in the world and a pro-development business environment. So how reliable is wind power in the best area in the US for its generation? Not very, unless you consider regularly going from meeting more than 50% of your load to less than 3% reliable.

Next time your Facebook friend or foe claims that wind power isn’t responsible for brownouts becoming a regular occurrence in Texas, post the following chart.

What is particularly sickening about wind turbines, for those who value minimizing atmospheric warming and leaving more nature undisturbed, is their impact on atmospheric methane levels.  The erratic nature of wind requires backup by natural gas turbines, inefficiently operated like an automobile driven by a, “lead foot Larry.” The rapid run up and down to accommodate erratic wind power productions wastes gas and prematurely wears out equipment

Washington State

Washington state is fortunate to have some of the lowest electricity rates in the country due to multiple hydroelectric dams, including the massive Grand Coulee Dam, the greatest generator of hydroelectric power in the US.  With little methane generation, the hydropower produced throughout the state is truly carbon-free.  While the state lacks the superior wind resources of Texas, virtue signaling green means never having to justify a project based on economic or environmental cost-benefit analysis.  Consequently, the Bonneville Power Authority has multiple projects with a rated capacity approaching 3,000 MW, or 10% of their rated hydroelectric power.

Washington wind power production plummets during the coldest winter and hottest summer days when calm winds prevail and power demand is greatest.  A similar situation occurs in Texas, leading to regular power brownouts,   

Solar Energy Explained

Solar power works by converting energy from the sun to either electricity or heat.  While most people are familiar with photovoltaic (PV) panels which convert light radiated from the sun directly to electrical energy,  that same light energy may also be converted to heat for residential, commercial, and industrial uses. Always as a supplement to fossil fuels due to the unreliability of the incident sun reaching Earth. 

Our Sun

Our Sun is a star that the Earth and other planets in our solar system revolve.  It generates an enormous amount of energy, some of which provides Earth with light and heat.  

Photovoltaics (solar cells)

Photovoltaic (PV) solar cells, which convert light directly to electricity, are the most common form of solar energy used today.

Cheap Panels Can’t Fix the Weather and Orbital Mechanics

Rooftop Solar

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations first occurred on a large scale in Germany as part of the German planned energy transition from fossil fuels and nuclear to unreliable renewables, wind and solar, as part of their Energiewende. Located in one of the worst possible areas for solar energy generation, with cloudy skies and extremely short days in the winter when the need for residential electricity is greatest, Germany spared no expense in subsidizing their installation.   Pandering to their loudest and most ideological group (the Greens), took precedence over minimizing the environmental footprint of generating electricity as discussed in Germany.  

With Germany virtue signaling green by spending more than $150 billion (USD 2018) subsidizing rooftop solar, other nations followed based on the motto, “But it works in Germany..”  Working means paying citizens whatever it took to incentivize installing solar panels on their roofs.  This works for the homeowner who makes a profit off of their neighbors paying for their solar installation through higher electric bills, the installation companies, and politicians garnering votes.  It does not work for the environment, with whole beaches in Asia being consumed to produce the silicon needed to manufacture PV panels, or citizens in the developing world who face a tsunami of e-waste in their backyards as these panels reach the end of their 25-year life. The environment pays a steep price for the virtue-signaling policies of the wealthier who push policies to support unearned feelings of self-righteous moral superiority.

Seattle

Germany’s commitment to rooftop solar installations, in the worst imaginable location (cloudy skies, huge seasonal variation in power output due to northern latitude), permitted others to follow suit, including my neighborhood in Western Washington State.  Washington State residents pay millions in taxes so a tiny number of mostly upper-income earners can make money by installing rooftop solar panels.   Panels producing a pittance of erratic junk power because rooftop solar power production is directly proportional to the incident solar load reaching it. 

So how little power can a rooftop solar installation produce in Seattle in the winter? Try $0.18 over 24 hours from a $10,600 rooftop installation paid for by taxes on your neighbors and more federal government money printing. Enough to run a 1.35 kW space heater for about 1 hr.

California

How does rooftop solar work in a location like California, which has some of the sunniest areas in the US? California collects that data, which shows a 4-fold seasonal variation between the sunnier long summer days and shorter cloudier winter days.  Since the power use varies little between seasons, a billion-dollar battery backup designed to level out a daily swing in solar power is useless when it comes to dealing with a seasonal variation.  Consequently, ratepayers continue funding their existing reliable power system, typically natural gas turbines, in addition to an insanely costly and environmentally damaging battery backup. 

Solar Energy to Heat

My desire to become a thermal analyst began in college with an interest in capturing the heat of solar energy to either generate electricity, using a Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power Plant (CSP) or provide heat for residential or industrial use.  

Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power (CSP)

CSP uses mirrors to concentrate the heat of the sun on a liquid,  raising its temperature sufficiently high to spin a turbine and generate electricity.  It requires none of the rare Earth metals of PV and offers the potential for reasonably priced short-term storage (ie; 2 to 4 hours).  Storage is critical because solar-generated electricity goes to zero at the time of maximum power needed for almost all locations.

Underperformance and high costs,  relative to PV, have limited CSP  growth to a small fraction of PV market penetration.  There is also the issue of a limited number of areas receiving the clear sky conditions required to produce any power, water requirements, and dead bugs and birds. 

Focused light acts like a bug zapper, with sufficient heat to fry a bird flying in the path of the reflected sunlight.

Wind + Solar = Natural Gas

The idea that the unreliability of wind and solar is offset by combining them is disproven by power production data from every state and country where wind and solar are installed.